Maritime Logistics Market Update
Global Freight Rates, European Purchasing Indexes & Business Confidence — Q2 and Early Q3 2026
Published: 10 September 2026 | Covering: February 28 (onset of war) through August 2026
Executive summary: Six months after the US-Israel strikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global freight markets have moved through three distinct phases: an initial shock (March), a sustained peak (April–July), and early signs of moderation (August). Container rates peaked near $4,700/FEU in mid-July and have eased to ~$4,465 by early September. Airfreight rates remain 24% above year-ago levels but have begun declining month-on-month. European purchasing indexes show factory activity recovering, with the Eurozone PMI sustaining 5 months of expansion and the German Ifo index climbing from a March low of 84.4 to 88.8 in August. For shipowners sourcing spares from Europe, Korea, Japan and China, the worst of the rate shock appears to have passed, though rates remain structurally elevated vs. pre-war levels.
1. Key indicators — then vs. now
2. Container shipping rates — trajectory from shock to moderation
Index 1: Drewry World Container Index (WCI) — weekly composite
| Period | WCI composite ($/FEU) | SH→Rotterdam | SH→Genoa | SH→US WC | SH→US EC | Phase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Late Feb (pre-war) | $2,168 | $1,700 | $2,200 | $1,843 | $3,022 | Baseline |
| Mar 26 | $2,279 | $2,552 | $3,474 | $2,686 | $3,393 | Shock |
| Late May | $3,549 | ~$3,500 | ~$4,500 | $4,683 | $5,870 | Escalation |
| Jul 2 (peak week) | $4,530 | $4,682 | $6,360 | $6,349 | $7,902 | Peak |
| Jul 9 | $4,639 | $4,933 | $6,463 | $6,482 | $7,904 | Near peak |
| Jul 30 | $4,255 | $4,677 | $5,630 | — | — | Easing |
| Aug 27 | $4,473 | ~$4,400 | ~$5,100 | $6,244 | $8,706 | Moderating |
| Sep 3 | $4,465 | — | — | — | — | Stabilizing |
Sources: Drewry WCI weekly releases, FreightWaves, Hellenic Shipping News. Rates per 40ft container (FEU).
The WCI surged from ~$2,168 pre-war to a peak of $4,639 in early July — an increase of over 110% — driven by Cape of Good Hope rerouting, fuel surcharges, and peak season overlap. Rates have since softened ~5% from the peak as seasonal demand fades, but remain more than double pre-war levels. The Transpacific route (SH→US EC) has been particularly sticky, with rates reaching $8,706/FEU in late August, partly driven by carriers restricting space through blank sailings.
Index 2: Carrier surcharges — evolution
Emergency conflict surcharges announced in early March ($2,500–3,000/FEU for Gulf-bound cargo) remain in effect. Additional Emergency Fuel Surcharges (EFS) were introduced in August across all lanes. Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) of $2,000–3,000/FEU are layered on top for July–August on Transpacific routes. Several carriers have also announced Panama Canal surcharges on Asia–USEC effective September.
3. Airfreight rates — from crisis spike to gradual easing
Index 3: WorldACD global airfreight rates and Xeneta spot rates
| Period | Global avg rate | Global spot rate | Spot YoY | China→EU spot | Phase |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Late Feb (pre-war) | $2.26/kg | — | — | ~$3.50/kg | Baseline |
| Mar (wk 10) | $2.40/kg | — | — | ~$4.50/kg | Shock |
| May (avg) | ~$3.30/kg | $3.71/kg | +41% | $5.43/kg | Peak |
| Jun (avg) | ~$3.20/kg | $3.71/kg | +43% | $5.43/kg | Sustained |
| Jul (wk 27) | $3.13/kg | $3.62/kg | +28% | ~$5.00/kg | Easing |
| Aug (avg) | $2.95/kg | $3.13/kg | +24% | $3.86/kg | Moderating |
Sources: WorldACD Market Data, Xeneta, TAC Index (Baltic Air Freight Index). Rates per kilogram.
Index 4: Air cargo capacity and volume trends
| Metric | Mar 2026 | Jun 2026 | Aug 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MESA capacity (YoY) | −48% | Recovering | −6% WoW | Improving |
| Global tonnage (YoY) | Flat | +9% | +1% (wk 32) | Growing |
| H1 2026 tonnage (YoY) | — | +5% | — | Resilient |
| H1 2026 rates (YoY avg) | — | +33% | — | Still elevated |
| China→EU spot (Aug vs Jul) | — | — | −29% (6-wk decline) | Declining |
Sources: WorldACD Market Data, Air Cargo News, Xeneta. Note: Gulf hub capacity has partially recovered as some flights resume via alternative routing.
Airfreight has followed a clearer moderation path than ocean shipping. Global spot rates peaked in May at +41% YoY, declining to +24% YoY in August. China–Europe spot rates have dropped sharply from $5.43/kg to $3.86/kg over six weeks. Key driver: Gulf carrier capacity is partially returning as Qatar Airways and Emirates resume some operations via rerouted airspace. However, rates remain firm by historical standards — the Baltic Air Freight Index remained almost unchanged through August, bucking the usual summer seasonal decline.
4. European purchasing indexes
Index 5: S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI
| Month | EZ Mfg PMI | Germany | France | Italy | Spain | Netherlands | Key theme |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2026 | 50.8 | 49.2 | 48.5 | 49.8 | 48.7 | 50.0 | Pre-war recovery starting |
| Mar 2026 | 51.6 | — | — | — | — | — | Strongest since Jun 2022; supply disruption begins |
| Apr 2026 | 52.2 | 51.2 | 52.8 | 52.1 | 51.7 | 52.7 | Near 4-year high; all 8 members >50; front-loading |
| May 2026 | 51.6 | 50.1 | — | 52.9 | — | — | Front-loading fading; input costs highest since May 2022 |
| Jun 2026 | 51.4 | — | — | — | — | — | Growth slows; inflation moderates; confidence improves |
| Jul 2026 | 51.9 | — | — | — | — | — | Strongest since Apr; output at fastest since Mar 2022 |
| Aug 2026 | 52.7 | — | — | — | — | — | Strongest growth in the sequence |
Sources: S&P Global / HCOB PMI releases, Format Research, trans.info. Note: the April PMI "expansion" was partly inflated by stockpiling (front-loading) which artificially boosted new orders and the delivery time sub-component.
Key European PMI observations
- Delivery times distortion: The PMI formula inverts supplier delivery times so that longer delays contribute positively to the headline number. S&P Global noted that the worst delivery delays since June 2022 were mechanically boosting the Eurozone PMI reading — meaning the headline expansion partly reflected supply disruption rather than genuine demand growth.
- Input costs surged: Eurozone manufacturing input costs reached their highest since May 2022 in April/May, driven by energy, fuel, transport, and commodity prices. Output prices rose at the fastest pace in 3.5 years. By June–August, cost inflation began moderating — a positive signal for downstream logistics costs.
- Front-loading faded: The initial boost from pre-emptive ordering (April) unwound through May–June. Germany's PMI fell from 51.4 to 50.1 as new orders declined for the first time in 2026. By July–August, a more organic recovery took hold.
- Services sector under pressure: The Eurozone composite PMI dipped to 48.5 in May (contraction) before stabilizing at 50.0 in June, reflecting the drag from higher interest rates and energy-driven inflation on services firms.
Index 6: Ifo Business Climate Index (Germany)
| Month | Ifo Climate | Current situation | Expectations | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2026 | 87.6 | — | — | Stable; cautious recovery hopes |
| Feb 2026 | 88.4 | — | 90.2 | Improving expectations |
| Mar 2026 | 86.4 | 86.7 | 86.0 | Sharp drop; weakest since Feb 2025; war shock |
| Apr 2026 | 84.4 | — | — | Trough — lowest since May 2020; "hit hard by Iran crisis" |
| May 2026 | 84.9 | Better | Less pessimistic | Stabilizing; logistics "no longer catastrophic" |
| Jun 2026 | 85.6 | More positive | Less skeptical | Recovery; "hoping for geopolitical tensions to ease" |
| Jul 2026 | 86.6 | Slightly worse | Significantly better | Expectations-led improvement |
| Aug 2026 | 88.8 | Significantly better | Significantly revised up | Broad recovery; uncertainty declining |
Sources: ifo Institute, Munich. The Ifo Business Climate Index is based on ~9,000 monthly responses from manufacturing, services, trade, and construction firms. 2015 = 100.
Ifo trend: The index has now recovered all of its war-related losses, rising from the April trough of 84.4 (lowest since May 2020) back to 88.8 in August — above the pre-war February reading of 88.4. The August release noted that "despite another rise in energy prices, the German economy is recovering" and that uncertainty continued to decline. However, the ifo also flagged that the transport and logistics sector "remains difficult" and that manufacturers "remain dissatisfied with their order situation." Capital Economics noted the data supports the case for near-term ECB policy tightening.
5. Asia-specific situation — Korea, Japan, China
Index 7: Asian manufacturing PMIs — full trajectory
| Economy | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | 53.0 | 51.6 | 55.1 | 54.5 | 54.8 | 54.5 | TBD | 7 months of expansion; AI/semiconductor demand |
| South Korea | 51.1 | 52.6 | — | — | 52.1 | 53.1 | TBD | Highest since Apr 2021; export orders accelerating |
| China (Caixin/RatingDog) | 52.1 | — | — | — | — | — | TBD | Strong H1 but tariff headwinds |
Sources: S&P Global, au Jibun Bank, RatingDog. Note: Korea Mar reading was highest since Feb 2022.
Japan has been the standout in Asia. Its manufacturing PMI reached 55.1 in April (strongest since January 2022) and has remained firmly in expansion (54.5–54.8) through July. Output growth hit its fastest pace since early 2014, driven by AI and semiconductor demand. However, suppliers' delivery times have "lengthened markedly" throughout the period — a direct consequence of the ongoing Hormuz disruption. Input cost inflation remains elevated. For spare parts sourced from Japan, expect continued delays but robust supplier capacity and willingness to produce.
South Korea has strengthened progressively, with the PMI rising from 51.1 in February to 53.1 in July — the highest since April 2021. Export orders increased at their quickest pace since April 2021, with firms citing the interim US-Iran agreement earlier that month as a demand catalyst. Input cost inflation, while still elevated, has moderated from its June 2022 highs. The chip sector remains a concern — helium supplies from Qatar remain disrupted and bromine sourcing from the Middle East is constrained — but domestic manufacturing capacity is operating well.
China posted strong H1 numbers (Caixin PMI at 52.1 in February, highest since December 2020), supported by pre-conflict export demand and stimulus measures. However, the compounding effect of US tariffs on Chinese goods and the Hormuz energy disruption creates uncertainty. China's negotiated tanker passage arrangements give it some energy supply advantage over Korea and Japan, potentially keeping its manufacturing sector more resilient.
6. Supply chain pressure index (NY Fed GSCPI) — the arc
Index 8: GSCPI — full trajectory
| Month | GSCPI | Phase |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025 | −0.16 | Below average — supply chains easing |
| Dec 2025 | +0.15 | Crossing above average |
| Jan 2026 | +0.42 | Rising — tariff effects |
| Feb 2026 | +0.49 | Rising — war starts end of month |
| Mar 2026 | +0.68 | First full war month captured |
| Apr 2026 | +1.82 | Peak — highest since Jul 2022 (4-year high) |
| May 2026 | +1.77 | Slight easing — still near 4-year highs |
| Jun 2026 | est. ~1.5 | Moderating as some inputs ease |
| Jul 2026 | est. ~1.2 | Further moderation expected |
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of New York GSCPI, PYMNTS, Supply Chain Connect. Note: GSCPI is released on the 4th business day of each month with a 1-month lag. Jun/Jul readings are estimates based on input trajectories. COVID-era peak was +4.47 (Dec 2021).
The GSCPI peaked at 1.82 in April — its highest reading in nearly four years — as every input category (shipping costs, airfreight costs, PMI delivery times) deteriorated simultaneously. The May reading eased marginally to 1.77. With container rates, airfreight rates, and delivery times all beginning to moderate through June–August, the index is expected to continue declining through Q3, though it will likely remain positive (above-average pressure) for the remainder of 2026.
Index 9: PMI supplier delivery times — moderation trajectory
| Economy | Mar 2026 | Apr–May | Jun–Jul | Aug | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US (ISM deliveries) | 55.1+ | Worst since Oct 2022 | Still elevated | Moderating | ↘ |
| Eurozone | Worst in 3.5 years | Worst since Jun 2022 | Still lengthening but slower | Easing | ↘ |
| UK | 25% reporting delays | Elevated | Moderating | Improving | ↘ |
| Japan | Lengthening | Elevated | Lengthening markedly | Still elevated | → |
| South Korea | Fractional lengthening | Elevated | Improved | Improved | ↘ |
Note: Japan remains the outlier — delivery times continue to lengthen markedly due to high manufacturing activity and Cape route delays. Europe and the US are seeing gradual improvement.
7. Impact on marine spare parts logistics — updated assessment
Cost comparison: pre-war vs. peak vs. current
| Cost driver | Pre-war (Feb) | Peak (May–Jul) | Current (Aug–Sep) | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Container (Asia → Europe, /FEU) | $1,700 | $4,600–6,500 | $4,400–5,100 | −15% from peak, still +160% vs pre-war |
| Airfreight (Asia → Europe, /kg) | $3.50 | $5.40–5.80 | $3.86–4.96 | −29% from peak (China); HK still elevated |
| Airfreight spot (global avg, /kg) | $2.26 | $3.71 | $3.13 | +24% YoY but declining MoM |
| Bunker fuel (VLSFO, /mt) | $530 | $850+ | ~$750 | Still elevated; EFS in effect from Aug |
| Transit time (ocean, Asia → EU) | 28–32 days | 42–48 days | 38–44 days | Slightly improved; Cape route now standard |
| Transit time (air, Asia → EU) | 2–4 days | 5–7 days | 3–5 days | Improving as Gulf hub capacity returns |
Updated procurement recommendations
- Rate direction is favorable but pace is slow: Container rates are declining from their July peak but remain more than double pre-war levels. Do not expect a return to pre-war pricing in 2026. Budget for sustained +80–120% premiums on ocean freight through year-end.
- Airfreight is the faster normalizer: China-to-Europe air cargo spot rates have fallen 29% in six weeks. For time-sensitive spare parts, airfreight is becoming more cost-competitive relative to its war-era peak. Consider shifting some AOG deliveries back to scheduled air from the charters that were necessary in March–May.
- Japan sourcing remains strong but slow: Japanese manufacturers are in robust expansion (PMI 54.5) with strong AI/semiconductor demand driving capacity, but delivery times remain markedly lengthened. Plan 4–6 weeks for ocean shipments from Japan to Europe.
- Korea is improving: PMI at 53.1 with export orders at multi-year highs. Delivery performance is returning to near-normal. Korea-origin ocean shipments to Europe are normalizing at 40–44 days.
- European suppliers recovering: With the Eurozone PMI at 52.7 and the Ifo climbing to 88.8, European manufacturing capacity is recovering. European-sourced spares avoid the Cape routing penalty entirely — consider increasing European sourcing share where possible.
- Watch for September GRI/PSS: Carriers are announcing fresh General Rate Increases and Panama Canal surcharges effective September. Lock in contract rates where possible before these take effect.
8. Outlook — H2 2026
The trajectory is positive. Business confidence (Ifo) has recovered to pre-war levels. Manufacturing activity across Europe and Asia is expanding. Airfreight rates are declining month-on-month. Container rates have come off their July peak. The GSCPI is easing from its April high. However, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to unescorted commercial traffic, the Cape of Good Hope rerouting is now structural, and energy prices remain 40–50% above pre-war levels. The improvement is real but the "new normal" is significantly more expensive than the pre-February 2026 baseline.
Key risk: Renewed escalation between the US/Israel and Iran — the early-July fighting underscored that ceasefire progress remains fragile. Any resumption of hostilities near the Strait would reverse the rate moderation immediately.
Summary of indexes
| # | Index | Publisher | Frequency | Peak | Current | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Drewry WCI | Drewry | Weekly | $4,639 (Jul 9) | $4,465 (Sep 3) | ↘ |
| 2 | Carrier surcharges | Carriers | As announced | Mar–Jul | EFS added Aug | → |
| 3 | WorldACD / Xeneta airfreight | WorldACD, Xeneta | Weekly | $3.71 spot (May) | $3.13 (Aug) | ↘ |
| 4 | Air capacity tracker | WorldACD | Weekly | −48% MESA (Mar) | ~−6% WoW | ↗ |
| 5 | Eurozone Mfg PMI | S&P Global | Monthly | 52.2 (Apr) | 52.7 (Aug) | ↗ |
| 6 | Ifo Business Climate | ifo Institute | Monthly | 84.4 low (Apr) | 88.8 (Aug) | ↗ |
| 7 | Asian Mfg PMIs (JP/KR/CN) | S&P Global | Monthly | Various | 54.5 / 53.1 / TBD | ↗ |
| 8 | NY Fed GSCPI | NY Fed | Monthly | +1.82 (Apr) | ~1.77 (May) | ↘ |
| 9 | PMI supplier delivery times | S&P Global / ISM | Monthly | Mar–Apr | Moderating | ↘ |